PROPAGATION OF 30—60 DAY LOW FREQUENCY OSCILLATIONS AND THEIR INFLUENCE UPON THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES JET STREAM DURING NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER

Based on daily ECMWF gridpoint data of two winters during 1981—1983 including an ENSOyear,propagation of low frequency oscillations(LFO)during Northern Hemisphere winters andtheir influences upon 30—60 day oscillations of the subtropical jet stream are studied with the sta-tistical methods as complex empirical orthogonal function(CEOF)and so on.Results show that inthe winter of a normal year(1981—1982),30—60 day oscillations in the subtropical zone aremainly in the northern and southern flanks of exit region of jet stream.In the ENSO year(1982—1983),they are mainly in the vicinity of entrance and exit regions of jet stream.Intraseasonalchanges of subtropical jet stream manifested themselves as latitudinal fluctuation or longitudinalprogression or regression of about 40 day period.There are marked differences between propagat-ing passages of low frequency modes responsible for changes of subtropical jet stream in the normalyear(1981—1982)and in the ENSO year(1982—1983).Changes of oscillation amplitude showobvious phases.In general,the one in late winter is stronger than that in early winter,strongestone occurs in February.     

盐度和昼夜节律对菲律宾蛤仔摄食率的影响

在实验室条件下，用流水系统测定盐度和昼夜节律对菲律宾蛤仔摄食率的影响。分别对15、20、25、30、35这5个盐度梯度，以及连续24h的00：00、04：00、08：00、12：00、16：00、20：00这6个时间点下菲律宾蛤仔的摄食率进行了测定。结果表明：在15-25的盐度范围内，蛤仔的摄食率随着盐度的升高而增大，在盐度25时达到最大，而在25-35盐度范围内随盐度的增加而减小；在一个昼夜里，蛤仔的摄食率存在显著的差异，夜间的摄食率明显高于白昼，00：00和12：00分别是两个极值；菲律宾蛤仔是一个有着明显昼夜节律性的底栖动物，并且对盐度有一个适应范围，盐度25-30是其最适的盐度。本实验为以后进一步研究菲律宾蛤仔在贝类混养虾池中的作用奠定了基础。     

Prediction of UT1–UTC,LOD and AAM χ<Subscript>3</Subscript> by combination of least-squares and multivariate stochastic methods

This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ ₃). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ ₃ time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ ₃ data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ ₃ predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ ₃ time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ ₃ reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR.     

气候变化对中国大雾的影响

1 Introduction The global environmental problem caused by climatic warming has attracted increasing attention of the scientific communities, the public and governments of various countries. The mean temperature of the recent decade is the highest of the p…     

Cretaceous length of day perturbation by mantle avalanche

These last 10 years, numerical models of mantle convection have emphasized the role of the 670 km endothermic phase change in generating avalanches that trigger catastrophic mass transfers between upper and lower mantle. On the other hand, scientists have emphasized the concomitance of large-scale worldwide geophysical and tectonic events, which could find their deep thermal roots in the huge mass transfers induced by the avalanches. In particular, the paleontological records show two periods of length of day (l.o.d.) shortening between 420 and 360, and 200 and 80 Myr BP. This last event is synchronous with a strong true polar wander and a global warming of the upper mantle. In order to study the potential effects of the avalanche on the main component of the Earth’s rotation, the Liouville equation has been solved and the l.o.d. evolution has been calculated from the perturbations of the inertia tensor. The results show that the inertia tensor of the Earth’s is mainly sensitive to the global transfers through the 670 km discontinuity. The l.o.d. perturbations will be synchronous with the global thermal effects of the avalanche. These theoretical results allow proposing a self-consistent physical mechanism to explain periods of the Earth’s rotation acceleration. Within this context, the l.o.d. shortening during the Cenozoic and Cretaceous brings one more clue to the possible participation of a mantle avalanche in generating the concomitant large scale events which have occurred during this very particular period of the Earth’s history.     

Global thermal and dynamical perturbations due to Cretaceous mantle avalanche

The numerical models of mantle convection agree to depict avalanches behaviour according to the level of endothermicity of the spinel → perovskite phase change. Their potential effects on the global thermal and dynamical states of the mantle have been computed thanks to a numerical code, which takes into account both the 400-km exothermic and the 660-km endothermic phase changes. The cycle followed by the avalanches is: local layering, destabilization of the 660-km thermal layer, travelling and spreading on the core, and reappearing of the local layering. Therefore, mantle convection is characterized by quiet periods of partial layering embedded in catastrophic events. During the avalanche, the amplitude of the surface velocity is multiplied by two, which would imply an enhanced plate tectonic and ridge activities. The global thermal effects of the avalanche are compatible with a high mantle temperature and an acceleration of Earth's rotation during the Cretaceous. They also offer a coherent explanation to locate the origin of mantle plumes both within the CMB and just below the transition zone.     

河南降水及最长连续无降水日数时空特征

利用河南省均匀分布的50个台站自建站至1997年近50年的定时降水资料，分析了河南省日小雨、日中雨、日大雨降水过程出现次数和最长连续无降水日数，结果显示，河南省日小雨、日中雨降水过程一年四季均可出现，日大而过程主要出现在3～11月份，冬季仅在豫南一些台站出现，各级降水过程出现次数季节性变化明显，冬季出现最少，夏季出现最多，其地理分布随测站纬度、拔海高度、地形地貌不同有较大差异；最长连续无降水日数也有明显的季节性变化特点，其最大值多出现在冬季，春秋次之，夏季最小，地理位置差异也较明显。     

地球自转研究新进展

对８０年代以来关于地极移动、日长变化以及它们的地球物理激发机制的研究进展作了较为全面的评述，其中也包括了我国学者的大量研究工作。从中可以看出，现代天文测技术和多学科交叉的综合研究对天文地球动力学和地球科学进展的深远影响。     

A Possible Detection of the 26 December 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Islands Earthquake with Solution Products of the International GNSS Service

The main goal of this work is to critically review the IGS solution products and Precise Point Positioning (PPP) in order to demonstrate their potential to contribute to studies of large earthquakes such as the one that devastated Southeast Asia on December 26th, 2004. In view of a possible detection of the Mw 9.0 Sumatra-Andaman Islands Earthquake of December 26, 2004, position solutions, ranging from intervals of years to one second, of four International GNSS Service (IGS) stations within 3000 km of the epicenter were examined. The IGS combined, cumulative solution product (IGS04P51), consisting of epoch and station velocity solutions and based on data spans of several years prior to the earthquake, was used as a reference. Four IGS combined weekly position solutions (igs04P1301-4), two weeks before and after the earthquake, were utilized for the weekly solution resolution. PPP static and kinematic solutions with IGS Final combined orbits and clocks were used for the mean daily and instantaneous 5-min and 1-sec epoch solutions, respectively. The most significant changes, detected by both weekly and daily solutions occurred in longitude. The nearest IGS station ntus, about 1000 km east of the epicenter, moved westward about 15 mm, while the more distant Indian station iisc (∼ 2300 km NW from the epicenter), shifted about 15 mm eastward. In spite of position errors caused by interpolation of the 5-min IGS clocks, the 1-sec solutions, based on separate data sets, available only for two stations (iisc, dgar), still showed seismic surface waves, in particular at the Indian station iisc. Precise daily IGS combined polar motion and length-of-day products, after correcting for the atmospheric effects, also likely detected, statistically significant, anomalistic excitations on December 26, 2004 that could be caused by this great earthquake.     

Pricing Weather Derivatives Index based on Temperature: The Case of Bahir Dar,Ethiopia

In this paper we present a stochastic model for daily average temperature to calculate the temperature indices upon which temperature-based derivatives are written. We propose a seasonal mean and volatility model that describes the daily average temperature behavior using the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We also use higher order continuous-time autoregressive process with lag 3 for modeling the time evolution of the temperatures after removing trend and seasonality. Our model is fitted to 11 years of data recorded, in the period 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2015, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, obtained from Ethiopia National Meteorological Services Agency. The analytical approximation formulas are used to price heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) futures. The suggested model is analytically tractable for derivation of explicit prices for CDD and HDD futures and option. The price of the CDD future is calculated, using analytical approximation formulas. Numerical examples are presented to indicate the accuracy of the method. The results show that our model performs better to predict CDD indices.